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Weekly Crypto Report — Mar 27, 2026

Mar 27, 2026 · 7 min read

This is the final weekly report before we start locking down the push notification formula. Six weeks of crypto outcome data — from the 66% EOD win rate in W12 to the 29% in W10 — have given us enough signal to begin. Here's what week 13 added to the picture.

Week Overview

315 entries this week — down from 490 last week. All 315 were qualified. Activity peaked Tuesday (104 entries) with a steady decline through Friday (15). SJ Scores ranged from 25 to 83, and BTC was mildly positive at entry time (avg +0.76%, down from +1.58% last week). Total Crypto Market at entry averaged +0.59%.

The reduced BTC tailwind compared to last week is an important context for the outcome data — and the numbers reflect it.

The SIREN Show

One token dominated this week's top 10: SIREN appeared 5 times in the top 10 entries by peak gain, with peaks of +180.5%, +166.4%, +150.5%, +130.9%, and +102.9%. All five entries were on different days, spanning Sunday through Friday.

This is the most appearances by a single token in our top 10 in any week. SIREN's SJ Scores ranged from 41 (earlier entries) to 62 (Friday), with the highest-SJ entry also showing the strongest peak-after-15m (+122.7%). The pattern: SIREN's early-week entries had lower SJ Scores because the formula hadn't yet recognized the accumulating momentum. By Friday's entry (SJ 62), the scoring system was catching up.

This is exactly the re-entry dynamic we've been tracking. A token that qualifies once might be noise. A token that qualifies five times in a week with peaks above +100% each time is showing persistent, repeating strength. The re-entry badge (showing "5th entry this week") would have flagged this to traders by mid-week.

Other Top Entries

USR — peaked at +108.4%. SJ: 41

Entered Sunday at 12:31 AM ET. Price: $0.281. Entry: +98.0%. Peak: +108.4%. Peak after 15m: -4.9%. That negative peak-after-15m is a red flag — USR actually fell in the 15 minutes after entry before eventually recovering to its peak. The screener caught it at a local high, and anyone who entered immediately would have seen a drawdown first. Low SJ (41) aligns with this being a risky entry.

JCT — peaked at +96.0% and +89.0% (two entries). SJ: 64

Appeared twice on Sunday (5:07 PM and 8:01 PM). Both entries had SJ 64 and strong peak-after-15m numbers (+94.7% and +87.7%). Unlike USR, JCT's upside was still ahead after 15 minutes — a higher-quality setup.

Outcome Tracking

314 entries measured. Extreme outliers (XFLOKI +435,249% and GPUAI +83,459% — data artifacts) excluded from calculations:

Interval Avg Win Rate Avg Win Avg Loss
5 min -0.07% 43% (133W/178L) +0.46% -0.48%
15 min +0.11% 44% (137W/173L) +1.06% -0.64%
30 min +0.07% 43% (133W/177L) +1.50% -1.00%
1 hour +0.06% 40% (124W/185L) +2.18% -1.36%
2 hours +0.03% 40% (124W/184L) +2.97% -1.95%
4 hours +0.07% 50% (154W/151L) +2.91% -2.84%
6 hours -0.08% 51% (155W/151L) +3.72% -3.98%
8 hours -0.42% 45% (138W/167L) +4.19% -4.22%
End of day -0.68% 48% (137W/147L) +4.71% -5.70%

A mixed week. Short-term (15 min to 2 hours) was marginally positive, with the best average at 15 min (+0.11%). The 4-hour mark was breakeven (+0.07%, 50% win rate). After 4 hours, performance deteriorated — EOD was -0.68% with a 48% win rate.

Compare this to last week's 66% EOD win rate and +1.50% avg: a significant pullback. The key difference is BTC context — last week had +1.58% BTC at entry, this week had +0.76%. That 0.8 percentage point drop in BTC tailwind corresponded to a complete reversal in EOD outcomes. This is now the clearest evidence yet that BTC state at entry is a primary driver of crypto outcome quality.

BTC Context Comparison: The Emerging Formula Variable

Across the weeks we've tracked crypto with BTC data:

Two data points isn't enough to build a formula, but the direction is strong. We're accumulating this data specifically to define a BTC threshold — above which crypto alerts get sent, below which the formula raises the entry bar. This is the kind of market-state awareness that separates a simple screener from an intelligent alert system.

SJ Score & Peak-After-15m

SJ Scores hit 83 this week — the highest crypto score we've recorded. Average was 53, consistent across weeks. The peak-after-15m average was elevated at +240.7%, though this is heavily influenced by SIREN's repeated 100%+ peaks. For the typical entry, the median remaining upside after 15 minutes was more modest but still positive.

JCT's two entries (both SJ 64) with peak-after-15m of +94.7% and +87.7% vs USR's SJ 41 with peak-after-15m of -4.9% is a clean case study: higher SJ Score correlated with better post-15m upside. More data needed, but directionally consistent with what we've seen in stocks.

Market Cap Breakdown

Small caps crossed the 50% threshold for the first time, making up more than half of all entries. The concentration of top movers in sub-$100M tokens is consistent with the current altcoin environment.

Activity Pattern

What's Next: Formula Lockdown

This wraps six weeks of data collection (W09–W13 with the new tracking format, plus W07–W08 with the original format). We now have thousands of paired data points: entry characteristics (SJ Score, RVOL, sector, market cap, range position, BTC context, index context, session type) mapped to outcomes at 9 time intervals.

The notification formula is being finalized this weekend. The variables that have shown the strongest signal across six weeks: SJ Score threshold, BTC state for crypto, RVOL minimum, the 15-minute confirmation gate for stocks, and the 4-hour optimal window for crypto. The formula won't be perfect on day one — but it will be data-backed, not guesswork.

Weekly Stats

StockJelli is an educational tool. This report recaps historical screener data for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or an endorsement of any security. Past performance and momentum data do not indicate future results. Always conduct your own research.

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